Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world

Abstract Mesoscale ocean eddies, an important element of the climate system, impact circulation, heat uptake, gas exchange, carbon sequestration and nutrient transport. Much what is known about ongoing changes in eddy activity based on satellite altimetry; however, length altimetry record limited, making it difficult to distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variability. Using a model that exploits variable-resolution unstructured mesh component enhance grid resolution eddy-rich regions, we investigate long-term response change. Eddy kinetic energy projected shift poleward most intensify Kuroshio Current, Brazil Malvinas currents Antarctic Circumpolar Current decrease Gulf Stream. Modelled are linked elements broader including Atlantic meridional overturning circulation decline, intensifying Agulhas leakage shifting Southern Hemisphere westerlies.